The Permafrost Paradox: Analyzing Infrastructure Failure Rates and Recovery Costs Post-Flood in Greenland's Coastal Zones
Authors
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Grace Chen
Horizon Labs
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Henry Wilson
Crimson Education Trust
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Isabella Martin
Northern Institute of Technology
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Jack Thompson
Oceanic Study Center
https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0000-0000
Abstract
Rapid climate warming is accelerating permafrost thaw, directly causing coastal instability and dramatically increasing infrastructure failure during frequent seasonal flooding events across West Greenland. This paper presents a mixed-methods analysis utilizing long-term monitoring data (2010–2023) to establish a quantitative link between foundation thaw depth and subsequent flood damage to critical municipal assets, including water treatment plants, power lines, and residential housing. We introduce a Permafrost Damage Index (PDI) that correlates mean annual air temperature (MAAT) increases with historical failure data. Our calculations show that the compounded effect of thawing and flooding has increased average recovery and repair costs by 45% in the last decade, far exceeding municipal budgetary forecasts. The findings argue compellingly for a paradigm shift in disaster financing, moving from reactive aid towards proactive, climate-adapted infrastructure investment and specialized deep-pilings to enhance long-term regional disaster resilience.
Copyright (c) 2025 Grace Chen, Henry Wilson (Author), Isabella Martin, Jack Thompson
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.